| StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · BOLLINGER BAND TRADING STRATEGY | << 1 ... 20 21 22 23 24 ... 39 >>Post Follow-up |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80406 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
9/30/2009 6:34:18 PM You said you have been practicing the BB strategy for about a month. What changes or adjustments (if any) do you plan if SP, DJ, and NYSE trends turn bear? Would you simply reverse your scans to deal with the upper BB(16,2.50) and wait for confirmation with a red candle? +++++++++++++++++++++ 1. The main adjustment to this system made in response to a possible downturn is that I added the confirmation requirement (close above close 1 day ago), and that I am willing to let this confirmation take place several days after the close below the lower BB (hard to code,so I just keep track of stocks waiting for confirmation in a separate watchlist). 2. No. That can be done at any time - I can't short stocks right now, due to restrictions for trading in my 401k. However, that will work (you can easily backtest it to see). This is a long only strategy right now, and it does become a little more challenging to maintain discipline during a market downturn - however, you get to buy more stocks on pullbacks during those times, so it all works out OK I guess. |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80407 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
9/30/2009 6:55:41 PM Curagen (CRGN) and Celldex (CLDX) merger was approved this evening. CRGN stock (which closed at $1.47, up $0.05) is up another $0.06 after hours. At $1.53, it is up 15% since Monday (I bought it at $1.33 just before the close after its confirmation signal). Since Curagen will become Celldex, each share of CRGN will be converted to 0.2739 shares of CLDX at the close tomorrow (CLDX was also up today, and is up AH as well). The conversion price was set as the 30 day average =$5.55 right now. That means CRGN will be (at a minimum) worth $1.52 tomorrow. |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80410 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA modified |
9/30/2009 7:09:27 PM SELL signal for NUS - currently up +5.89% at today's close. I'll put in a order to sell at the open tomorrow. |
| burns1971 16 posts msg #80414 - Ignore burns1971 |
9/30/2009 8:53:04 PM Kevin, Thanks for the valuable info on CRGN. I'll be entering a trailing stop for that one. On another note, I've diverted from your method by adding a stop-loss of -10%, which came in very helpful with ICON today; my order was filled at about -13%. Thank you for the time, detail, and care you are giving to this thread, especially by offering as current information as possible. Bill |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80415 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
9/30/2009 9:03:43 PM Trailing stops don't work so well here - allow me to demonstrate: CONFIRMATION BUY WITH NO TRAILING STOP 11/6/08 to 3/6/09: There were 99 total stocks entered. Of those, 49 or 49.49% were complete and 50 or 50.51% were open. Of the 49 completed trades, 47 trades or 95.92% resulted in a net gain. Your average net change for completed trades was: 16.89%. The average draw down of your approach was: -14.31%. The average max profit of your approach was: 22.79% The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 44.28 Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 247.14%, the ROI of ^SPX was: -86.13%. CONFIRMATION BUY WITH 10% TRAILING STOP 11/6/08 to 3/6/09: There were 120 total stocks entered. Of those, 97 or 80.83% were complete and 23 or 19.17% were open. Of the 97 completed trades, 26 trades or 26.80% resulted in a net gain. Your average net change for completed trades was: -2.42%. The average draw down of your approach was: -10.72%. The average max profit of your approach was: 9.85% The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 0.57 Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): -123.24%, the ROI of ^SPX was: -86.13%. |
| burns1971 16 posts msg #80417 - Ignore burns1971 |
9/30/2009 9:22:30 PM Thank you for the examples. Perhaps I should rethink my trailing stop. |
| gabestogie 79 posts msg #80419 - Ignore gabestogie |
9/30/2009 9:53:57 PM Kevin: Congrats on NUS, another BINGO. Alos good news on CRGN, I'm in it right behind you, I'll be happy to ring the register at anytime. Gabe |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80424 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA modified |
9/30/2009 11:48:21 PM Burns: I picked that specific timeframe to emphasize that the system will work during rough times (where trailing stops seem to make the most sense). During uptrends the comparison looks similar: CONFIRMATION BUY WITHOUT TRAILING STOP Test started on 03/10/2009 ended on 07/10/2009, covering 85 days Filter used: close is above close 1 day ago close 1 day ago was below lower bollinger bands(16,2.5) 1 day ago close is above 1 and apply to watchlist(IBD1,IBD2,IBD3) average volume(50) is above 50000 There were 53 total stocks entered. Of those, 21 or 39.62% were complete and 32 or 60.38% were open. Of the 21 completed trades, 21 trades or 100.00% resulted in a net gain. Your average net change for completed trades was: 17.38%. The average draw down of your approach was: -5.43%. The average max profit of your approach was: 19.92% The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 0.00 Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 215.68%, the ROI of ^SPX was: 85.49%. CONFIRMATION BUY WITH 10% TRAILING STOP: Test started on 03/10/2009 ended on 07/10/2009, covering 85 days Filter used: close is above close 1 day ago close 1 day ago was below lower bollinger bands(16,2.5) 1 day ago close is above 1 and apply to watchlist(IBD1,IBD2,IBD3) average volume(50) is above 50000 There were 54 total stocks entered. Of those, 42 or 77.78% were complete and 12 or 22.22% were open. Of the 42 completed trades, 19 trades or 45.24%resulted in a net gain. Your average net change for completed trades was: 1.08%. The average draw down of your approach was: -5.60%. The average max profit of your approach was: 10.50% The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 1.35 Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 24.93%, the ROI of ^SPX was: 85.49%. In my view, any good trading system will need to beat the S&P over the timeframe tested, or you should move on. |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80441 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/1/2009 9:40:00 AM Sold NUS at the open for $18.56. Bought on 8/26 for $17.5. YIELD: +6.06% |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80443 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA modified |
10/1/2009 9:51:08 AM Stop limit in for CRGN at $1.50. This is the last day this stock will be traded, after this it is converted to CLDX shares. My thinking is that it is at a reasonable profit, and CLDX was not part of the IBD lists, so it is OK to sell and take the money. Not really violating any of the system rules. CRGN opened lower at $1.47, so there may be a sell-off this morning and my order might not get filled. Market is down as well, so I may simply sell at the close today if I don't get $1.50. |
| StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · BOLLINGER BAND TRADING STRATEGY | << 1 ... 20 21 22 23 24 ... 39 >>Post Follow-up |
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