| StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · BOLLINGER BAND TRADING STRATEGY | << 1 ... 22 23 24 25 26 ... 39 >>Post Follow-up |
| kmcninvest 43 posts msg #80472 - Ignore kmcninvest |
10/1/2009 7:38:28 PM Anyone have thoughts on STEC? Stay with it or bail...I think it will go up based upon everything I read about the industry but that is if the market is not tanking. It still has a 99 rating on IBD. I believe in what Kevin said about stops with this strategy but the market has to be taken into consideration. Thoughts? |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80476 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/1/2009 7:55:46 PM LOTS of possible trades coming out of today's market evisceration. Here are some thoughts - one thing I look for recently is if the stock has closed below the lower BB within the last year, and if so what did it do. I look at more than this, but this helps me undestand how the stock has responded similarly in the past. TAST - closed below lower bb on 6/23, confirmed on 6/25, 20% Profit stop hit on 7/8 BAMM - closed below lower bb on 6/15, confirmed on 6/18, 20% Profit stop hit on 7/2 CBOU - closed below lower bb on 11/8, confirmed on 11/10, 20% 20% Profit stop hit on 12/12 LAD - closed below lower bb on 10/27, confirmed on 10/28, 20% Profit stop hit on 10/29 MFB - closed below lower bb on 6/22, confirmed on 6/24, 20% Profit stop hit on 7/30 SMSI - closed below lower bb on 11/20, confirmed on 11/24, 20% Profit stop hit on 12/17, then again closed below the lower bb on 2/18, confirmed on 2/24, 20% Profit stop hit on 3/24 RBA - closed below lower bb on 1/14, confirmed on 1/15, 20% Profit stop hit on 4/14 CHDX - closed below lower bb on 11/20, confirmed on 11/21, 20% Profit stop hit on 12/18 JDAS - closed below lower bb on 2/23, confirmed on 2/24, 20% Profit stop hit on 4/17 SMRT - closed below lower bb on 11/20, confirmed on 11/21, 20% Profit stop hit on 11/26, then again closed below the lower bb on 3/2, confirmed on 3/3, 20% Profit stop hit on 3/10 BBV - closed below lower bb on 1/14, confirmed on 1/15, 20% Profit stop hit on 5/8 RADS - closed below lower bb on 12/29, confirmed on 12/31, 20% Profit stop hit on 1/6 EEFT - closed below lower bb on 2/17, confirmed on 2/18, 20% Profit stop hit on 3/2 MHS - closed below lower bb on 2/26, confirmed on 3/3, upper bb hit on 11/26 (+16% profit) AEPI - closed below lower bb on 11/25, confirmed on 11/26, upper bb hit on 3/19 (-26.5% loss) ACTG - closed below lower bb on 2/26, confirmed on 2/27, 20% Profit stop hit on 3/19 SWKS - has not closed below lower bb in the past year. |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80477 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA modified |
10/1/2009 8:02:47 PM Anyone have thoughts on STEC? Stay with it or bail...I think it will go up based upon everything I read about the industry but that is if the market is not tanking. It still has a 99 rating on IBD. I believe in what Kevin said about stops with this strategy but the market has to be taken into consideration. Thoughts? +++++++++++++++++ Where do you think this company will be in 3 months? or six? They have no competition, and just reported two new contracts for SSD drives in the last 10 days. I'm in and staying in. Look at the one year charts for the stocks that came up in todays' BUY scan. They often dropped 20-30% before taking off again in March, hitting new highs. If it takes a year to hit the 20% profit stop, is that a bad return? |
| kmcninvest 43 posts msg #80478 - Ignore kmcninvest |
10/1/2009 8:09:40 PM Thanks Kevin. That was my thought but wanted to see what others were thinking. I would be buying more today if I had more liquid funds. |
| drew9 171 posts msg #80483 - Ignore drew9 |
10/1/2009 9:16:04 PM Thanks Kevin! Just wanted to clarify as we have two stops to work with - stop loss and trailing. I used an 8% stop loss, not the trailing for my test. Again, changing the exit to "touched" upper BB made the system break even during the incredible down turn. Once again, I wondered about the online version of IBD. Do you use it or just get the paper. I was considering subscribing but wondered if you could get all the same information online? |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80486 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/1/2009 9:29:56 PM SYSTEM PERFORMANCE OVER THE LAST FOUR MONTHS (BACKTEST) Approach Name: BOLLINGER BAND CONFIRMATION BUY Test started on 06/01/2009 ended on 10/01/2009, covering 86 days Filter used: close is above close 1 day ago close 1 day ago was below lower bollinger bands(16,2.5) 1 day ago close is above 1 and apply to watchlist(IBD1,IBD2,IBD3) average volume(50) is above 50000 Trade Statistics There were 81 total stocks entered. Of those, 58 or 71.60% were complete and 23 or 28.40% were open. Of the 58 completed trades, 58 trades or 100.00% resulted in a net gain. Your average net change for completed trades was: 18.04%. The average draw down of your approach was: -4.50%. The average max profit of your approach was: 19.86% The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 0.00 Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 228.94%, the ROI of ^SPX was: 33.16%. Exit Statistics Stop Loss was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time. Stop Profit was triggered 38 times or 65.52% of the time. Trailing Stop Loss was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time. You held for the maximum period of time (0 days) 0 times or 0.00% of the time. An exit trigger was executed 20 times or 34.48% of the time. Total (Cash + Market): $121,097.83 |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80487 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA modified |
10/1/2009 9:37:18 PM Thanks Kevin! Just wanted to clarify as we have two stops to work with - stop loss and trailing. I used an 8% stop loss, not the trailing for my test. Again, changing the exit to "touched" upper BB made the system break even during the incredible down turn. Once again, I wondered about the online version of IBD. Do you use it or just get the paper. I was considering subscribing but wondered if you could get all the same information online? ++++++++++++++ I had an online subscription (free for a few weeks) and could not filter stocks by IBD Composite rating. Seemed odd that they wouldn't offer this option. Therefore, I simply went to the store, bought the IBD Paper for 3 bucks, and went through it by hand. Straight 8% stop loss versus no stop loss comparison for the last four months: Yours (with 8% stop loss): There were 81 total stocks entered. Of those, 62 or 76.54% were complete and 19 or 23.46% were open. Of the 62 completed trades, 49 trades or 79.03% resulted in a net gain. Your average net change for completed trades was: 12.60%. The average draw down of your approach was: -4.65%. The average max profit of your approach was: 16.64% The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 8.39 Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 212.78%, the ROI of ^SPX was: 33.16% Total (Cash + Market): $116,199.32 Mine (no stop loss): There were 81 total stocks entered. Of those, 58 or 71.60% were complete and 23 or 28.40% were open. Of the 58 completed trades, 58 trades or 100.00% resulted in a net gain. Your average net change for completed trades was: 18.04%. The average draw down of your approach was: -4.50%. The average max profit of your approach was: 19.86% The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 0.00 Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 228.94%, the ROI of ^SPX was: 33.16%. Total (Cash + Market): $121,097.83 |
| drew9 171 posts msg #80492 - Ignore drew9 |
10/1/2009 10:47:56 PM Thanks I will go pick up a paper! The filter with an 8% stop loss is still outstanding as I was just trying to see how it fared in the worst possible timeframe while limiting risk. The fact is most people probably would have been quite happy during that timeframe to break even. It certainly makes up for it nicely in up markets. Keep up the great work! |
| richo 74 posts msg #80501 - Ignore richo |
10/2/2009 6:59:38 AM I bought ICON @12.60 based on a hunch of a reversal : bottom tail larger than body and anticipated close above open and anticipated close above close yesterday all occurring on a major selloff. The 12.60 price was actually below the open(12.65) but I was fairly confident that if it didn't close above then open, it would likely close higher than the previous day Rich |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80503 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/2/2009 8:04:25 AM Richo: ICON was one of only a handful of stocks to close in the green yesterday. Probably a good call on your part. Good Luck! |
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