| StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · BOLLINGER BAND TRADING STRATEGY | << 1 ... 19 20 21 22 23 ... 39 >>Post Follow-up |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80269 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA modified |
9/29/2009 9:28:41 AM Kevin, brilliant that you're using a wider BB. Bollinger himself says that while +/- 2 standard deviations (SD) usually nets 95% of the data, with stocks he found it only captures about 88 to 89% because stocks do not have standard normal distributions. I was looking at OFG using the standard BB 2.0. ++++++++++++++++++++++++ I had posted this earlier in the thread - the settings I currently use are based on an optimization I did using 458 IBD top-rated stocks, going back 2 years. The variables were the MA and the number of SDs used. The program then went back and calculated the profit (after commisions) for all 458 stocks on all combinations of MA (5-25, increment = 1) and SD (1-2.5, increment = 0.1). There were some very short timeframes that did well, but required a LOT of trading. The combination of 16 and 2.5 emerged as the highest overall when looking at both profit and % accuracy, and had the added benefit of a manageable amount of trades (like 2-3 a week). Higher SD settings could be even more profitable on a per trade basis, but occur very infrequently (and they are always caught by the 2.5 SD setting anyways). |
| decipherlinda 133 posts msg #80274 - Ignore decipherlinda |
9/29/2009 10:00:35 AM OFG up 1.81% and RIMM up 1.0% at 10:00 AM. Wow! Very cool! |
| gabestogie 79 posts msg #80275 - Ignore gabestogie |
9/29/2009 10:39:55 AM Kevin: Bought the following today: RMD@44.80 OFG@13.33 CRGN@1.36 BYI@38.19--(I realize this was not a confirmed buy from the original scan, was going to pull the trigger yesterday but held off) Regards, Gabe |
| gabestogie 79 posts msg #80276 - Ignore gabestogie |
9/29/2009 11:11:31 AM Kevin: Just picked up FHCO@4.95 Gabe |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80277 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA modified |
9/29/2009 11:18:57 AM ONE MONTH IN ON THIS STRATEGY - SOME THOUGHTS SO FAR Well, I have been trading this strategy for just over a month now (since August 26th). Obviously started with just two stocks and added gradually as the BUY signals dictated. Thought it was time to look back on my trades and the decisions I made, to see if I can improve my system and my personal discipline. 1. Overall, the system has been a consistent generator of profits. There have only been two days since its inception where the portfolio did not make money - sometimes that might only be a few bucks, but it still is accretive. As the number of stocks have grown to 20+, each day is becoming increasingly profitable. The average percentage gain (admittedly during a nice uptrend) has been about 1% per week, on average. 2. The system backtested well against the time period 11/06/08 through 03/06/09, which to me says it is robust enough to weather any imminent correction we might be facing over the next few months. Here are the results for both the standard BUY version and the version that requires a confirmation before buying (the current version): BOLLINGER BAND(16,2.5) BUY Time frame: 11/6/2008 through 3/6/2009 Win%:81% Lose%:19% W/L ratio:4.33:1 Reward/Risk: 7.75 ROI: 171.05% ROI of ^SPX: -86.13% BOLLINGER BAND(16,2.5) CONFIRMATION BUY Time frame: 11/6/2008 through 3/6/2009 Win%:96% Lose%:4% W/L ratio:23.50:1 Reward/Risk: 44.28 ROI: 247.14% ROI of ^SPX: -86.13% 3. During the first few weeks of using the system, buying at the close on the day the stock closed below the lower BB was statistically the most profitable approach, versus waiting for any confirmation (close above close 1 day ago). Now that is not the case, perhaps indicating a swing in the market. I now view the system as having two states - one for uptrends, where no confirmation is required, and the other for downtrends where confirmation makes a lot of sense. I still need to figure out exactly when to make the state change, however. THOUGHTS ON PERSONAL DISCIPLINE Like any trader, this is perhaps the most important trait to develop in order to be successful. My personal assessment is that I have made quick decisions that do not conform with the system, the result of which have been poor trades. Examples: 1. DL - I bought this one when using a slightly different screen, where I had removed the daily volume requirement. This trade would not have been entered using either current version of the filter, which I was using at the time anyway. Still not sure why. As it stands, this has been a dog of a trade, with volume that rarely is above 10K shares a day. Low volume means that small sell orders can really move the stock price around. 2. RIMM, STEC, and BJRI - bought in on these without waiting for a confirmation signal. On BJRI this might be excused based on when I bought in, but on RIMM and STEC I could have waited and gotten in at a better price. |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80284 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA modified |
9/29/2009 1:01:18 PM Looks like we'll get confirmation on RIMM today. Up ~2% at 1 PM. UPDATE: 1:50 PM - RIMM is definitely on the move, now up 2.5% and pretty much in a 45 degree ascent since noon. Finally I see a confirmation signal on BJRI. Long time coming ... it is currently up 3.25%. |
| gabestogie 79 posts msg #80288 - Ignore gabestogie |
9/29/2009 2:27:25 PM Kevin: Looks like BJRI is ready to pop. Nice candle so far, slightly above avg. vol.,would like to see it heavier. Gabe |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80289 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA modified |
9/29/2009 2:38:01 PM Kevin: Looks like BJRI is ready to pop. Nice candle so far, slightly above avg. vol.,would like to see it heavier. Gabe ++++++++ Not sure if it will go much higher today - it seems stuck at around 15 since 10 AM. I was in at 15.59, so of course I am hopeful it will make a move today (or soon, not in a rush). Best mover of the day by far is FHCO - up 4.55% right now. EDIT: END OF DAY - THE CLEAR WINNER WAS CRGN (UP 6.77%). Kevin |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80351 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
9/30/2009 8:39:26 AM Heads up on ICON - they lowered FY guidance, and in premarket it looks ugly. This from AP about 15 minutes ago: "The company reduced its full-year revenue guidance to a range of approximately $215 million to $220 million. Its previous outlook was for sales of $223 million to $230 million. Analysts expect 2009 revenue of $229.9 million. For the third quarter, Iconix forecasts adjusted earnings of about 26 cents to 28 cents per share with revenue in a range of approximately $53 million to $56 million. Analysts predict third-quarter profit of 36 cents per share on revenue of $61.8 million. In premarket trading, Iconix shares fell $2.50, or 16 percent, to $13.30. |
| ryansutton 1 posts msg #80401 - Ignore ryansutton |
9/30/2009 4:39:43 PM Kevin, thanks for taking the time to post your original ETF trading ideas as well as the IBD stock BB strategy. I wish I had discovered this discussion before attempting my first trades!!!!! I am brand new to buying stocks and still learning the ropes. I appreciate your strategy as I do not have $25k to day trade. Maybe some day I can play the game like TRO, Chetron, muddy, 13th floor, etc. For now, short term and swing trading look to be my best options. You said you have been practicing the BB strategy for about a month. What changes or adjustments (if any) do you plan if SP, DJ, and NYSE trends turn bear? Would you simply reverse your scans to deal with the upper BB(16,2.50) and wait for confirmation with a red candle? Thanks again for your time helping others. Ryan in AZ |
| StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · BOLLINGER BAND TRADING STRATEGY | << 1 ... 19 20 21 22 23 ... 39 >>Post Follow-up |
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