| StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · BOLLINGER BAND TRADING STRATEGY | << 1 ... 21 22 23 24 25 ... 39 >>Post Follow-up |
| gabestogie 79 posts msg #80444 - Ignore gabestogie modified |
10/1/2009 9:55:21 AM Kevin: Nice play, NUS hit the upper BB and out based on the system. Gabe Unbelievable,the dynamics of the market are phenominal. I finally get a winner in CRGN and the market decides to shave some off of me.---LOL |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80446 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/1/2009 10:26:28 AM Unbelievable,the dynamics of the market are phenominal. I finally get a winner in CRGN and the market decides to shave some off of me.---LOL +++++++++ Agreed. The data today was, on the whole, pretty good. Yet the market dropped like a stone. With NUS sold, the open trades are, for only the second time, net negative so far today. Hopefully we'll see a turnaround before the end of the day. I'm sticking with my limit order on CRGN until the end of today - if it does not get filled, I'm selling at the close. |
| gabestogie 79 posts msg #80459 - Ignore gabestogie |
10/1/2009 2:59:30 PM Kevin: CRGN seems to be stuck @1.45 Gabe |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80460 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
10/1/2009 3:42:07 PM $1.44 actually - I moved my limit order down to $1.45 when it was apparent that this would not be able to swim upstream against the market current. Still unfilled, but hopefully we'll get a hocket stick save toward 3:45 PM that will provide some impetus for the last penny. Lots of DD to do tonight - the BUY filter pulled up 11 new stocks. Will obviously wait for confirmation tomorrow or Monday on any stock before adding it to the portfolio. |
| gabestogie 79 posts msg #80461 - Ignore gabestogie |
10/1/2009 3:49:11 PM kevin: Closed CRGN @1.44 ---6% profit. Gabe |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80462 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA modified |
10/1/2009 3:52:00 PM Order filled on CRGN - out at $1.45. In on Monday at $1.33. Yield: +9.02% |
| gabestogie 79 posts msg #80463 - Ignore gabestogie |
10/1/2009 3:56:37 PM Nice,another good call. Gabe |
| drew9 171 posts msg #80465 - Ignore drew9 |
10/1/2009 4:51:20 PM Kevin, this is by far one of the most professional and well done threads ever for SF. Great Job! Just wanted to chime in a bit on the stop loss that a few folks have voiced. You mentioned that you are only trading small dollar amounts and are fine with potentially losing your initial investment. If you look at any good trade strategy - including IBD, they will tell you to take losses quick and move on (8-10%). The results that you show NOT using a stop loss are not accurate as they only take into account closed trades. Unfortunately, the trades that remain are those that are mainly down and in some instances a lot. If you look at the Backtest Equity Summary you can see the final day closes out all the remaining trades and it is a big loss which puts the system into a losing status. This assumes they were all closed out that day but if traded for real, any account equity would still be negative for that day. I have done some tweaking and played with the stop loss (not trailing stop). If you want to look at the worst case scenario (11/6 - 3/6) using an 8% stop loss and changing the exit to "Price touched upper Bollinger Band(16,2.5), this basically allowed the system to break even during this timeframe. Again, look at the Equity Summary not the win loss results. Overall, this is still a huge accomplishment and a system I would and probably will consider trading. During the better times such as the last 6 months, it typicall shows W/L % of 70+ and it is very profitable. I did notice during this timeframe, it was better to use your exit of "close above BB" and it gave better results in an up market. Just wanted to add my insights as I really like what you have done but feel other traders like myself may not be willing to accept your level of risk. If you or others care to tweak this further for better results please pass them along. One other question, how are you obtaining your IBD list and how often does it get revised. I have read it a lot usually while traveling but have never subscribed. Do you subscribe to the online version? Is the IBD 100 Relative Strength revised weekly or daily? I was just curious what I needed to do and how often to update the list. |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80466 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA modified |
10/1/2009 5:25:56 PM Drew9: Great questions. Let me try to answer: I do look at Equity Summary. Here it is for the two time frames I used to look at trailing stop losses: BOLLINGER CONFIRMATION BUY WITH 10% TRAILING STOP, 20% PROFIT STOP 3/10/09 TO 7/10/09 EQUITY SUMMARY: Total (Cash + Market): $101,343.49 ($100,907.92 without profit stop) 11/06/08 TO 3/06/09 EQUITY SUMMARY: Total (Cash + Market): $94,359.45 ($93,325.18 without profit stop) BOLLINGER CONFIRMATION BUY WITH NO TRAILING STOP, 20% PROFIT STOP 3/10/09 TO 7/10/09 EQUITY SUMMARY: Total (Cash + Market): $106,067.59 ($104,506.41 without profit stop) 11/06/08 TO 3/06/09 EQUITY SUMMARY: Total (Cash + Market): $99,573.97 ($102,027.07 without profit stop) Obviously you do better without any stops under both good market conditions and bad. I make this statement based on both the annualized ROI versus ^SPX and the Equity Summary. The IBD lists I compiled by hand, using the top 100 as well as any in the 2500 stocks they rate that were above 85 as of Mid-September. I do not update this list at the moment, since the IBD rankings should be based on longer term fundamental performance (EPS rising last three quarters, sales increases, cash, etc). |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #80467 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA modified |
10/1/2009 6:02:38 PM A little more on equity and backtesting: Backtesting against the time I have been trading (since 8/26 until the open today, when all held stocks are sold - so it doesn't take today's big hit into account) Approach Name: BOLLINGER BAND CONFIRMATION BUY Test started on 08/26/2009 ended on 10/01/2009, covering 25 days 10% Trailing Stop, 20% Profit Stop There were 27 total stocks entered. Of those, 13 or 48.15% were complete and 14 or 51.85% were open. Of the 13 completed trades, 12 trades or 92.31% resulted in a net gain. Your average net change for completed trades was: 10.40%. The average draw down of your approach was: -2.41%. The average max profit of your approach was: 15.69% The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 27.09 Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 230.22%, the ROI of ^SPX was: 2.40%. Exit Statistics Stop Loss was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time. Stop Profit was triggered 5 times or 38.46% of the time. Trailing Stop Loss was triggered 5 times or 38.46% of the time. You held for the maximum period of time (0 days) 0 times or 0.00% of the time. An exit trigger was executed 3 times or 23.08% of the time. Total (Cash + Market): $102,309.80 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Approach Name: BOLLINGER BAND CONFIRMATION BUY Test started on 08/26/2009 ended on 10/01/2009, covering 25 days No Trailing Stop, 20% Profit Stop There were 26 total stocks entered. Of those, 10 or 38.46% were complete and 16 or 61.54% were open. Of the 10 completed trades, 10 trades or 100.00% resulted in a net gain. Your average net change for completed trades was: 17.27%. The average draw down of your approach was: -1.99%. The average max profit of your approach was: 19.07% The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 0.00 Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 358.52%, the ROI of ^SPX was: 2.40%. Exit Statistics Stop Loss was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time. Stop Profit was triggered 7 times or 70.00% of the time. Trailing Stop Loss was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time. You held for the maximum period of time (0 days) 0 times or 0.00% of the time. An exit trigger was executed 3 times or 30.00% of the time. Total (Cash + Market): $102,512.50 |
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