BarTune1
441 posts
msg #80205
- Ignore BarTune1 |
9/28/2009 11:04:33 AM
The vix (9,20) BB strategy strikes again Kevin, I have taken profits with the SPY up 16 points .....
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #80214
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
9/28/2009 12:47:26 PM
Glad to hear, BarTune.
But remember - you placed the bet and closed the trade profitably, not me. Good play on your part.
I'm assuming you closed out when it crossed the 5DMA as you usually do, or did you let it run a bit?
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #80215
- Ignore BarTune1 |
9/28/2009 1:24:59 PM
we had a buy signal the past two days .... so i bought and doubled up Thursday and Friday ... i should exit positions today with a cross of the 5dma ... however, this morning, with the dow up around 130 ... I closed out 60% of my positions fearing a pullback ...
my personal feelings are that the market may run till month end .... and then reverse the first of next month ...
in any event if the market continues to run, we will likely get a VIX / SPY sell signal at which time I will begin to short ...
kinda like a see saw ride
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #80225
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
9/28/2009 4:14:43 PM
Got confirmation signals on RMD, OFG and CRGN today.
I bought these right before today's close:
RMD - in at $44.61
OFG - in at $13.30
CRGN - in at $1.33
I'll update the portfolio on post #1 of this thread later tonight once final numbers are in, but it looks like the open trades portfolio was up about 1.5% today.
No confirmation for GENT today (another down day, will keep this on the radar screen).
RIMM did not confirm today (closed at $66.38 down -$2.48 (-3.60%)). Should have waited and followed only after confirmation - what good is a system if I do not follow it???? That is a rhetorical question of course ....
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BarTune1
441 posts
msg #80238
- Ignore BarTune1 |
9/28/2009 7:58:42 PM
Kevin,
RIMM looks good to me - I use Trading Markets as one of my primary screening sources - RIMM is rated a 9 as of the close today - take a look at the chart - it indicates the times RIMM has been rated 9 or higher this year.
http://charts.tradingmarkets.com/prcharts/index.cfm?from=01/01/2009&to=09/28/2009&prtype=pr&barlen=daily&style=ohlc&months=3&prnumbers=1,9,10&cma200=2&sym=RIMM
James
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #80244
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
9/28/2009 9:43:39 PM
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gabestogie
79 posts
msg #80247
- Ignore gabestogie |
9/28/2009 10:35:51 PM
Kevin:
I believe the confirmation signals are going to be an added plus to your system. I'll be going in on the new confirmation signals.
Gabe
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decipherlinda
133 posts
msg #80250
- Ignore decipherlinda |
9/28/2009 11:35:31 PM
Going out on a limb here but RIMM doesn't look good (1) HUGE gap down Friday morning, and (2) no consolidation before the drop below the lower BB and no 'many days of drops' for capitulation of selling, (3) no upturn today (where it was almost hard to find a stock not going up), and (4) strong volume on the selling today indicates to me that the business problems RIMM had with their new phone being a bomb means it may go lower first. Looks like it was hit by a freight train. This is not your normal close below the lower BB. The opportunity to buy at a lower price may be just ahead although the product implications may mean rocky times ahead even if there is a white candle tomorrow.
OFG is worrisome even though there was a bullish engulfing today. Looks like it was consolidating and the bad few days we've been seeing in the indexes took it down a little. The BB wasn't tight until the last 4 to 5 days: the longer the tight BB's when the stocks been consolidating, the stronger the movement at the breakout. It could just pull back to the consolidation area and stablize back in the $13.84 +/- area. I heard that financials were strong in the afternoon today so that might help jump start it. And then, maybe I'm just plain wrong.
Seems like there are two basic ways a close below the BB's works. One is with capitulation selling where there's no one left to sell or who wants to sell so the bulls take over. The other is when the stock's been consolidating in a narrow range (a squeeze) and it breaks down below the Lower BB. This can be what Bollinger calls a head fake (look to the right when the ball's coming from the left to fake out the other team) and then it goes back up after a short time -- or it can be just a breakdown or return to consolidation.
If this has been already discussed, my bad.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #80254
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
9/29/2009 12:05:25 AM
I probably jumped into RIMM too soon - that's why even though I own it, I am keeping it on the confirmation watchlist for now, as the system would dictate.
As for closing below the lower BB, on a 2.5 SD which is used here, it is hard to have a gradual crossing below the lower band - it usually is a relatively bigger move than the ADR (which is why you see band compression in many cases ahead of the "head fake").
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decipherlinda
133 posts
msg #80262
- Ignore decipherlinda |
9/29/2009 8:50:00 AM
Kevin, brilliant that you're using a wider BB. Bollinger himself says that while +/- 2 standard deviations (SD) usually nets 95% of the data, with stocks he found it only captures about 88 to 89% because stocks do not have standard normal distributions. I was looking at OFG using the standard BB 2.0.
Glad I brought the question up yesterday because I wasn't aware of the idea that a close below the lower BB is usually decisive. Good thought as long as the move doesn't cause the lower BB to go lower. Live and learn! Thank you!
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