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| nikoschopen 2,824 posts msg #61197 - Ignore nikoschopen |
4/7/2008 3:14:13 PMAnybody still with me on this one? Shall we then suspend our judgment until mid-June when I believe the S&P 500 will be trading near 1100 (yes, that's a 20% drop from today)? |
| johnpaulca 12,036 posts msg #61199 - Ignore johnpaulca |
4/7/2008 4:45:59 PM Niko...are you trying to scare the crap out of us???...cause it's working. (>: |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #61202 - Ignore EWZuber |
4/7/2008 5:11:13 PM No, thats not how it works. I do not abondon the Monthly, Weekly, Daily , Hourly and 5 minute Charts after consulting the Quarterly Charts. Quarterly Charts are indicating that distribution is not over in that time frame. That does not mean that there can not be an Accumulation Phase on the Weekly Chart where the chart will rise to test resistance levels in THAT time frame. Look at a Weekly Chart of the COMP during the market crash from 2000 to 2003. Insert the 15 & 25 period MA's. Notice thet even though there was long term distribution, there were still many Weekly Chart Accumulatiomn Phases where the index rose to test resistance at the 15 & 25 WK.MA's. However longer term Quarterly and Yearly Charts were still in distribution phases the entire time. Notice that when the Quarterly Chart attempted an accumulation phase in Oct. of 2001 it ran into resistance and failed, thats because the Yearly Chart had not finished it's distribution phase yet. Now look at what happened in Oct 2002. The Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly Chart ALL CONVERGED IN PHASE with eachother and this caused a massive move to the up side. Seeing this huge cyclical convergence coming, I posted on RB that a massive Bear Market rally was about to ensue 4 days prior to the market bottom.. Currently, if the COMP Daily Chart violates 2350 EoD then we will have a distribution phase in that time frame and EoD short positions can be justfied. If you can day-trade at will then a short at the close of the 1:00 hour today justified a short position in that time frame as it violated pattern support at 2383 and provided a stochastic -Xover= a distribution phase on the Hourly Chart. Short position risk remains higher though until the Daily Chart moves into a distribution phase. The 15 WK.MA is currently being tested as resistance as we speak. If that is confirmed at the end of the week as resistance that will add a bearish tone to the chart. Because the Monthly Chart is so oversold and the stochastic fast %K and slow%D lines have converged in that time frame I am expecting this to influence the shorter time frames. A close at EoM above 2346 will confirm a Monthly Chart accumulation phase which would drive markets higher. Multiple wave forms when combined create complex wave forms. It is easy when they all converge at the top or bottom as they did in Oct. 2002. But it requires analysis when they are at various stages of the individual cycles. I emailed stockfetcher at one time to see if they would be interested in writing software to plot the interaction of these wave forms of all the time frames but they didn't even respond. |
| nikoschopen 2,824 posts msg #61205 - Ignore nikoschopen |
4/7/2008 8:32:09 PM Suppose then the quarterly is in a distribution phase, the monthly in an accumulation phase, the weekly in another distribution phase while the daily is in an accumulation phase. I won't even bother going into the intraday charts where the hourly is in a distribution phase, the 30-minute in accumulation but the 15-minute is again in distribution all the while the 5-minute is rangebound (you thought it was accumulating, didn't ya?!). |
| nikoschopen 2,824 posts msg #61206 - Ignore nikoschopen |
4/7/2008 8:36:37 PM Niko...are you trying to scare the crap out of us???...cause it's working. (>: You'll remember me as the boogeyman of the 2008 bear market. lol |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #61211 - Ignore EWZuber |
4/8/2008 12:42:04 AM nikoschopen, when the Monthly Chart is in an accumulation phase the distribution phase on the Weekly Chart will be mitigated. It will be relatively shallow and short in duration making it a buying opportunity. Quite often there is no confirmed WC distribution phase under these conditions only a consolidation pattern. The Daily Chart accumulation phase will be of relatively higher amplitude and longer duration causing the WC distribution phase to be even less prominent while the Hourly chart distribution phase will be short and shallow and also be a buying opportunity. Again a consolidation pattern is very likely. The 30 minute accumulation phase will further mitigate any weakness on the Hourly Chart which is moving against the longer term trend. The 5 minute chart will not remain range bound for long under these conditions. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #61213 - Ignore EWZuber modified |
4/8/2008 1:11:50 AM TOP CHART IS MONTHLY, (MC) BOTTOM IS WEEKLY (WC),  |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #61239 - Ignore EWZuber modified |
4/8/2008 4:23:08 PM Weekly Chart accumulation phase appears to be having the calculated affect on the Daily Chart. Stochastics have -Xover but so far pattern support is intact! This indicates CONSOLIDATION NOT DISTRIBUTION. Exactly what I was expecting. Daily Chart formed a Dragonfly Doji (mildly bullish) on successively lower selling volume. Will be watching for a bounce up off the COMP 15 DMA within the next two sessions. The COMP 5m/10MA was confirmed as support just in time to close the HC above the 50 HR.MA. The 10HR.MA is dropping slowly and I suspect this development with the 5m/10MA could lead to confirming the 10 HR.MA as support and bring the index to a resolution to this consolidation pattern to the upside. Made a couple bucks on QLD today as it broke 5m chart pattern support at ~2:00. Closed when 1m chart confirmed the 1m/10MA as support at ~2:25. Could have made a ton more entering earlier but with only two daytrades left for the next 5 days it tends to make me very cautious. |
| nikoschopen 2,824 posts msg #61259 - Ignore nikoschopen |
4/9/2008 2:50:50 PM Why not just short COMP until mid-June as I proposed earlier? It might actually help get you out of that dreaded PDT thang altogether. Anyway, I enjoy ure take on the market. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #61264 - Ignore EWZuber |
4/9/2008 4:36:43 PM nikoschopen, my problem is that I have great difficulty watching gains erode on a profitable position. I don't like holding a short position while the chart is in an accumulation phase, even if it's rising to just test resistance. I could have held my QID yesterday but would have had to watch almost all my profits evaporate and not be sure that the position wouldn't actually go underwater before possibly returning to profitability. I have a need to keep the majority of my money in the moment. I don't trust overnight gaps either even if it's just a knee jerk reaction with no staying power. |
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