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| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #61265 - Ignore EWZuber |
4/9/2008 4:54:46 PM Today confirmed Daily Chart distribution but in this area there is substantial support just below todays close. COMP did test the 15 DMA as support today and bounced up on heavy volume and it looks like a gap up tomorrow is likely. Hourly Chart is attempting a new accumulation phase but is unconfirmed at this time. A move higher tomorrow would fit the idea of what I have been expecting however judging from todays move it might have a tough time. Sell volume still well below ADV. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #61284 - Ignore EWZuber |
4/10/2008 11:45:32 AM And there's the bounce up off of the COMP 15 DMA. |
| nikoschopen 2,824 posts msg #61287 - Ignore nikoschopen |
4/10/2008 12:11:16 PM I wouldn't count on that just yet. ;^) |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #61297 - Ignore EWZuber modified |
4/10/2008 2:32:34 PM I'm almost certain that the COMP 10 HR.MA will hold as support. It is in an uptrend now, slowly approaching price. Hourly Chart pattern support at ~ 2352. If that is violated at the top of the hour (the close of that hours candlestick)with a stochastic -Xover then the Hourly Chart will go into a distribution phase. Until then we have a consolidation pattern. What we are seeing right now is the COMP riding down on the only closeby MA support. That is the 25 HR.MA which is still in a downtrend and so is very poor support. It needs to contact a MA that is in an uptrend, thats where the 10 HR.MA should come in handy. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #61303 - Ignore EWZuber |
4/10/2008 4:06:13 PM In the final minutes of the session the COMP bounced up off of the 10 HR.MA to close at Hourly Chart pattern support. This maintains the HC consolidation pattern and avoids an HC distribution phase. Tomorrow I suspect it will be driven down a bit to lure in some short sellers, then bounce up off the 10 HR.MA. IMO |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #61331 - Ignore EWZuber |
4/10/2008 8:33:07 PM Now I'm not certain about this but I suspect that tomorrow we will see a major burning of the shorts. The Hourly Chart pattern support held into the close today. So that means no HC distribution phase = bullish. They even let it drop into the close just to bounce up off of the 10 HR.MA at the last minute to regain HC support to the exact number and no more. I suspect this was intentional. To create an illusion of weakness and not reveal their hand to anyone not watching closely. Many retail traders will be expecting weakness particularly on a Friday. Typically during simuiltaneous accumulation phases that EoW sentiment changes. |
| nikoschopen 2,824 posts msg #61341 - Ignore nikoschopen |
4/11/2008 1:16:08 AM Actually, my understanding is just the opposite. For the last three sessions, the market was taken down in the afternoon only to bounce back up just prior to the close. However, such a bait can only work so much. At any rate, based on what's happened in the prio bear market, here's what I think will happen over the next few days. Just don't kill me if I'm wrong. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #61393 - Ignore EWZuber modified |
4/11/2008 4:34:05 PM I missed the broken Trendline on the Hourly Chart yesterday and it's confirmation as resistance. That would have been a warning of more downside had I seen it and I should have seen it. Todays drop was on a bit less than ADV so maybe a bounce up off the 25 DMA next week. Even then I suspect it will only be a short term bounce to test resistance levels as the 15 WK.MA has been confirmed as resistance which as I mentioned earlier I would consider a bearish outcome for the week. Weekly Chart pattern support is still intact but with stochastics becoming overbought in that time frame and up against resistance it no longer looks like it has any strength. 
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| johnpaulca 12,036 posts msg #61751 - Ignore johnpaulca |
4/23/2008 4:56:53 PM What have you guys done with Zuber??? |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #61891 - Ignore EWZuber modified |
4/28/2008 3:03:31 PM johnpaul, been doing most of my posting on Raging Bull lately. Anyhow, here's how things look from my perspective; Notice that the COMP Daily Chartn stochastics are now beginning to oscillate in an overbought condition. This is due to the synergy of multiple time frames acting in phase with eachother. A close at the EoM above 2346 will confiirm a new Monthly Chart accumulation phase and a close above ~2425 will violate the 25 MO.MA as resistance. With the Monthly Chart in an accumulation phase there will be even greater synergy when the Weekly and Daily Chart are also in their accumulation phases. The DC & WC distribution phases will become shorter and shallower or be mitigated to the point of only consolidation without distribution at all. IMO The Bear Sterns blow up can safely be called the bottom of this MC cycle. With the COMP predictably bouncing up off the 50 MO.MA. VIX has violated it's 50 WK.MA as support so I suspect it will drop to test it's 25 MO.MA as support at 16.9. It 's looking like a Monthly Chart distribution phase will be confiormed for the VIX at the end of April with a close below MC pattern support at 22.40. |
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