EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #58746
- Ignore EWZuber |
1/4/2008 4:11:00 PM
COMP broke the avalanche point of a Double Top pattern today. COMP will have to drop to ~2375 to satisfy the pattern downside.
As oversold as it is on the Daily Chart, though, I suspect there is some testing of resistance to do first.
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #58841
- Ignore EWZuber |
1/9/2008 2:00:32 AM
Looks like it is highly likely that the COMP will test the 50 MO.MA at ~2235 as support.
Right now it is testing the 25 MO.MA so we could see an oversold bounce here, particularly with W%R at -100. That almost always signals some upside relief to an oversold market the next day, two days tops.
IMO
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #58842
- Ignore EWZuber
modified |
1/9/2008 2:02:37 AM
Several solar stocks sitting on support and chompin at the bit to move higher.
ESLR, ENER, CTDC.
IMO
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #58910
- Ignore EWZuber |
1/11/2008 11:11:11 AM
I believe the COMP is preparing to bounce. Hourly Chart is becoming oversold and the 15 HR.MA held as support last hour.
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #58913
- Ignore EWZuber |
1/11/2008 2:29:26 PM
Looks like VIX is confirming it's 25 HR.MA as resistance at 24.07 and the COMP is confirming it's 5m/10 MA as support.
This could be the move.
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #58914
- Ignore EWZuber
modified |
1/11/2008 3:16:22 PM
VIX bounced up off its 10 HR.MA and formed a rising wedge pattern to break resistance at the 25 HR.MA.
COMP confirmed it's 15 HR.MA as resistance.
Looks like COMP will drop to test recent lows or close.
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nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #58915
- Ignore nikoschopen |
1/11/2008 4:07:14 PM
I ain't too keen on VIX as a useful indicator nor am I convinced that we're embarking on a fresh bear assault. It seems like 50/50 at this point. I believe there may be another leg up before the whole thing comes crashing down. But with so much uncertainty in the air, especially in light of all the hooplas surrounding Bernanke-gate, this would not be the most ideal time to short the market.
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maxreturn
745 posts
msg #58917
- Ignore maxreturn |
1/11/2008 4:38:59 PM
Niko, agreed. I run filters every day which also give me a pulse on the market. When the market tanked shortly after Christmas I got tons of short setups on high volume. Yesterday and today, not very much. I still think we could see a bit of a rally or at least a consolidation near current support levels.
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nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #58919
- Ignore nikoschopen |
1/11/2008 6:30:30 PM
With the big bad boys like Citi and Merrill showing at the front door next week with a larger-than-life subprime loss and the economic numbers like CPI and PPI that I think will crunch out as-yet-revised monster number, I ain't too sure what the Fed will do. One is recessionary, the other is inflationary. All I know is that it's gonna be one helluva roller-coaster week with a plenty of gut-wrenching opportunities.
If you play the options, go for the straddle or a credit spread to limit your downside risk. Otherwise, stay on the sideline if you can't handle large volatility.
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EWZuber
1,373 posts
msg #58926
- Ignore EWZuber |
1/12/2008 4:59:33 AM
nikoschopen, here's my take on things.
1) We just tested the 25 MO.MA as support. This is a very significant long term support area. It is bound to attract some investment capitol.
2) The Weekly Chart is in a distribution phase. This will mitigate any oversold bounce from the Daily Chart since the Weekly Chart is dominant.
Consequently I'm expecting a bit of consolidation around here. If that consolidation breaks to the downside ( expected) then the 25 MO.MA will likely be violated as support and down it goes.
There is a very small chance that we have tested the bottom of this pattern. A small chance that the 25 MO.MA will hold as support.
Another reason I think we have more downside for the COMP is because the confirmed bearish Double Top pattern that formed from the end of Nov.07 to the beginning of Jan 08 has not satisfied the downside implied by the pattern. To satisfy that pattern we would have to violate the 25 MO.MA as support which leaves us with the 50 MO.MA as the next stop down at ~2235. At this point, that seems the likely outcome, IMO.
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