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| dbyrt 70 posts msg #58528 - Ignore dbyrt |
12/26/2007 5:17:20 PM I traded two of these today, but can you believe it, still came out down on the day! SOLF and LDK. As TRO says, its not the stock, but how you trade it. Every time I entered it went sideways, then dipped down and hit my stop. Obviously the entry trigger I'm using might be lacking, it was a moving avg cross-over (4 and 20 min). Alternatively to a stop, whenever I've tried setting a target to hit on the upside, the price doesn't make it, starts coming down away from it, and I'm chasing after it on the way down to get out before it goes much lower. Any ideas appreciated on how to enter and exit these. |
| miketranz 978 posts msg #58529 - Ignore miketranz |
12/26/2007 5:45:28 PM I traded ESLR today,great liquidity,tight spread.You could have made money all day long with this one buying on the dips and selling up.Pull up a 3min chart and see what I mean.The afternoon action was where its at.I've traded CSIQ a few times,very volatile,wide spread,trades thin,this one could hurt you if your trading any kind of size.The way I look at the market these days,you might as well trade where the action is,if you want to make any kind of money......... |
| dbyrt 70 posts msg #58530 - Ignore dbyrt modified |
12/26/2007 5:50:38 PM "I traded ESLR today,great liquidity,tight spread.You could have made money all day long with this one buying on the dips and selling up." How do you buy on a dip, and know that its the bottom of the dip?, and, when do you know when its at the top and time to sell? I guess, after selecting a stock, these two questions are the most fundamental, the only questions that actually matter. TRO's approach is to draw a horizontal line and sell when a target is reached, e.g., 'don't be greedy'. All the squgglies don't seem to help a lot, and I think I have to agree, no amount of squiggles seem to give me the right triggers. |
| miketranz 978 posts msg #58531 - Ignore miketranz |
12/26/2007 6:12:41 PM I trade with 3 sma 9/18/27 on a 3min chart.I wait for the stock to pullback into the 27 line,and break down below it,and enter when it re-crosses it to the upside.This was also one of those high volume,long range days.You just have to be luck enough to be there.When price starts to move up,sell it when it starts to run-up.Your selling into the rush,when everybodys buying.Use a tight stop just under your entry,and honor it.Trading is'nt a science and nothing works all the time.Experience is the best teacher..... |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #58539 - Ignore EWZuber |
12/26/2007 7:15:22 PM dbyrt, using an MA crossover is not enough because it doesn't give you the big picture. For me to enter a long position I need to see the stock in a relatively oversold condition using slow stochastics, 5,3,3. I need to see it bouncing up off of a moving average while stochastics give me a +Xover. I use 10, 15, 25 & 50 period moving averages in all time frames. There really was NO really good buy signal for LDK or SOLF on the Hourly and 5 minute charts today. It's no wonder you had difficulty with them. SOLF actually created a ST sell signal this morning as stochastics went into a distribution phase. The Daily Chart could create an Evening Star pattern tomorrow which typically marks a cycle top. The example I offer as a possible entry tomorrow is strictly offered only as an example on the Hourly Chart. Other time frames must agree and in this case it looks very risky. If you do a search for the Convergent Stochastic Theory on SF threads I believe you will find detailed explanations of how it works. The other day when I mentioned that XNSN was at a compelling entry point there were several things in place for a buy signal. -The Daily and Weekly Charts were in accumulation phases. -The Hourly Chart stochastics were max oversold at 0 and completely converged. -XSNX was testing pattern support and support at the 50 HR.MA. -Sell volume was low. Most important was the stochastic +Xover with a bounce up off of support. A second buy signal was created this morning. Only buy at support if the stock is in a longer term uptrend. (that is longer term than the time frame you are trading in) Otherwise I advocate buying on the break of the 10 period MA as the stock bottoms out in the distribution phase and is testing the 10 period MA as support along with a near simultaneous stochastic +Xover. This is a high success point. Don't just take anything that comes along, be very very specific. and disciplined in your trading. 
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| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #58541 - Ignore EWZuber modified |
12/26/2007 7:22:56 PM I do not recommend taking a long position tomorrow in this stock at this time because of the relatively high volume Doji Star pattern that is possibly developing. It is telling me there were a lot of sellers today. However look at this Hourly Chart as if the Daily Chart was just at the beginning of an accumulation phase and you will see the possibility for a buy signal tomorrow as stochastics converge to cross and SOLF would bounce up off of the 10 HR.MA  |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #58542 - Ignore EWZuber |
12/26/2007 7:25:09 PM I suspect it is more likely we see the 10 HR.MA violated as support tomorrow, but we'll see. |
| dbyrt 70 posts msg #58543 - Ignore dbyrt modified |
12/26/2007 7:44:20 PM EWZuber, thanks for posting the graphs and your suggestions. I can see from your previous posts, that you really are a firm believer in the technical analysis 'squgglies'. I really have my doubts to be honest. you say: " It is telling me there were a lot of sellers today" how do you know there were a lot of sellers today? Weird. Don't know how you can possibly know that? and, how do you know it's an accumulation phase? If by accumulation, you mean the price is going up as people want to get into the stock, I agree. If the stock is going down, people want to get out of it. e.g., the price is moving down, I agree. There's no more to it than that. e.g., its still moving averages of the price. Stochastic are only moving averages too.......just taking a different price point. As for doji's, all the looking back I've ever done, I've noticed that there are as many examples of a stock going either way following a doji. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #58549 - Ignore EWZuber |
12/27/2007 12:21:16 AM dbyrt, absolutely. Just looked at my account and it's up 10% in December using those squiggly lines. There's no doubt in my mind. Its very easy to tell how much selling there is. The reason I say that there were a lot of sellers today is because todays gains were not due to natural price growth that is driven by buying at the ask but rather by a gap formed by a big money player(s) (which includes market makers). The volume was high. So if the volume was high but the stock closed basically where it opened then that tells me that there were a lot of sellers. If there were not a lot of sellers the stock would have continued higher and formed a bullish candlestick body above the gap. Basically, if there wasn't the gap the stock would have gone nowhere. Also if you break it down on a 5 minute chart you can see the first two volume bars were heavy buying which was totally negated by heavy selling that followed. "...how do you know it's an accumulation phase?.." An accumulation phase technically begins when the stochastic fast line crosses above the slow line and there is a violation of pattern resistance. These two things also comprise a basic buy signal for me. Accumulation occurs when the trades primarily occur on the 'ask' side. When the lowest ask is bought out by traders accumulating the stock then the next lowest ask price is higher than the last and when it gets taken out as well the price rises as traders accumulate the stock at the ask. When the trade takes place primarily on the bid side, then it is done by sellers wanting to get rid of their stock so they sell it to the highest bidder. When the highest bid is taken out then the next highest bid is lower then the last and when it gets taken out then the price falls as traders distribute their shares. "...As for doji's, all the looking back I've ever done, I've noticed that there are as many examples of a stock going either way following a doji...." All Doji's are not the same. A Doji on high volume when the cycle is heavily overbought is a good set up for an Evening Star pattern. We'll likely see tomorrow when the 10 HR.MA is tested as support if this is going to be an Evening Star pattern. |
| EWZuber 1,373 posts msg #58560 - Ignore EWZuber |
12/27/2007 12:00:03 PM dbyrt, SOLF broke support at its 10 HR.MA as expected and looks like it is forming an Evening Star pattern on the Daily Chart. |
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