StockFetcher Forums · General Discussion · Challenge<< 1 ... 18 19 20 21 22 ... 28 >>Post Follow-up
nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #54127
Ignore nikoschopen
8/17/2007 2:22:13 AM

Rally just didn't feel right yesterday.Too many holders,Hedge funds,Funds,Privates,Foreign funds,and lastly the poor retail investor.Selling over-powering short covering.Fast money guys calling for a big rally and money media talking "buying Oportunity",watch out!

I've been in this market fairly long enough to know when things smell fishy. When the market is pummeled in the first half of the session only to pull its ass straight back up to finish the day flat in the second half, especially when it's technically in a very sad shape, there's something terribly wrong and it raises a fear factor in me. The most likely scenario for today's action is that the S&P 500 hit the March low (a major support) and you have these delusional optimists in their blind rage spraying bullets towards the marauding bears and thus taking the market higher. But these are no small time retail bandits but major institutional biggies that are whipping out program trades after program trades. But I'm thinking there must be something else they're banking on like, uhm, earlier than expected bailout from the Fed. At this juncture, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Fed makes an "unannounced" (yeah, right) rate cut next week. I say this because I got badly burned when the Greenspan & Co. showed up at my doorstep back in early 2001 and told me in no uncertain terms that I was toast because they've just dropped the interest rate. Needless to say, I lost a lot of money on that fateful day. Be that as it may, their intervention turned out to be just another comic relief because the market dropped like a brick anyway.

petrolpeter
439 posts
msg #54129
Ignore petrolpeter
8/17/2007 4:14:01 AM

Oh,An additional mention is those double short charts(QID) just looked so damn good,like breaking out kinda good.HANS short@49 sails back through the gap,only in this market I guess.They asked Buffet today what he thought of the derivative/loan meltdowns,in a very casual way he said people by these instruments with out knowing where they are headed.Warren seemed to say these are a mistake to own and a waste of time to even look at and showed no pity whatsoever to those folks.Does Bernanke have the same opinion?If so he'll let the dumb paper burn without pity too as it is doing so right now.

karennma
8,057 posts
msg #54143
Ignore karennma
8/17/2007 11:46:48 AM

look at a SPY chart.
does that look "normal" to you?


karennma
8,057 posts
msg #54144
Ignore karennma
modified
8/17/2007 12:05:03 PM

nikoschopen
nikoschopen 8/16/2007 11:22:13 PM
I've been in this market fairly long enough to know when things smell fishy.

==========================================================================

No kidding!
Rally on!
And when all the suckers jump on board, they'll get stabbed in the back again ... on the downside,, hard and heavy.



nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #54145
Ignore nikoschopen
8/17/2007 1:03:06 PM

On the 15-minute chart, $SPX looks like it's forming an inverse head & shoulders pattern. If it does break out, it's likely to break ure back so watch out. My less-than-accurate prediction forecasts for a rally until next Tuesday.

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #54147
Ignore nikoschopen
8/17/2007 1:08:07 PM

OOh, aahh, ga-ga, I think the damn thing is about to fly anytime now.

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #54155
Ignore nikoschopen
8/17/2007 2:27:57 PM

Fed unexpectedly cuts "discount window rate" by 50 basis points to promote restoration of orderly conditions in financial markets; Fed notes "market conditions have deteriorated" and "downside risks have increased appreciably" since last meeting. (Soruce: Briefing.com)

See, I told ya there was a reason for yesterday's rally!

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #54157
Ignore nikoschopen
8/17/2007 3:01:01 PM

It ain't my biz to preach the values of perma-bear doctrine, but the timing of this rate cut begs the question. I'm beginning to think there's something the Fed ain't telling us and resorting to their usual ruse to cover it up. Within the coming week(s), it's plausible to hear one of the big banks or mortgage shops falling to its early demise. If, and big if, Countrywide or one of its big lenders file for Chapter 11...well, you don't need me to spell out what the consequence of that might mean.

heypa
283 posts
msg #54159
Ignore heypa
8/17/2007 4:33:56 PM

Niko To paraphrase an old phrase "What a difference a FED makes. Apparantly Bernanke has learned much from his in depth study of the Great Depression.I was in it as a child on the east coast and times were really tough. They (the times) created the monster called F.D.R.. Look at what has happened to this country since then.Can anyone recognise the creeping cancer called socialism and the inexorable growth of government.Here in California we still don't have an approved budget.The basic arguement? The Dems wan to spend more than the expect to garner in taxes next year and the Rep, don't. They both expect to get more taxes than they can possibly rip out of the citizens. Go figure. We're freaking doomed.

nikoschopen
2,824 posts
msg #54161
Ignore nikoschopen
8/17/2007 5:18:51 PM

Heypa,

As a poor college grad from the era of the Bush senior induced recession, I should just mention in passing that, no matter how you cut it, the record indicates that the stock market fared much better under a democratic administration than otherwise.

Since I'm merely a day trader, the big macroeconomic picture doesn't concern me as much as where the prices might be in the next 30 minutes. But, as a contrarian cynic hardened by many years of losses, I always try to read between the lines as much as possible to decipher what I think is just another unprintable nonessentials. For example, the market tanked 10% from its all-time high, but the Fed has so far turned a blind eye to everyone's plea, including that boneheaded originator of "Booo-ya" syndrome, to lower the rate. Why Bernanke & Co. decides to lower the discount rate at this moment in time, with a high likelihood of the fed fund rate getting axed very soon, can only stir up a deep suspicion within me. I CAN ONLY SAY THAT THESE INFLATION HAWKS CLEARLY WOULD NOT HAVE CONTRADICTED THEMSELVES HAD THEY NOT KNOWN SOMETHING IS ABOUT TO ERUPT...SOON. (Well, what the hell do you think that might be? Ure guess is as good as mine, although I'm pretty certain that this fake rally will be used to create a false sense of security for those who blindly entrust their money to the fickle actions of these so-called guardian angels.)

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