tombrown1
61 posts
msg #107510
- Ignore tombrown1 |
8/9/2012 10:44:10 PM
Aug. 8, 2010-Aug. 8, 2011
SSO gained 7%
SDS lost 12%
Sorry, but this causes me to abandon this backtest. Those are unacceptable results for an entire year's worth of trading regardless of what else it did in previous years.
Too bad because I had some hope for this strategy. If I find some time maybe I'll try it with stops.
Best,
Tom
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johnpaulca
12,036 posts
msg #107512
- Ignore johnpaulca |
8/10/2012 12:04:06 AM
you need to catch earlier in the cycle, nothing wrong with the strategy....cycle is long in the tooth and market is mean reverting.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #107527
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
8/10/2012 10:06:59 AM
SSO down a bit today - currently at 57.55, so I'm down about 0.67% and the system entry at yesterday's open is only down 0.33%.
I'll be looking for a better exit price over the next few hours, which should also give me a better entry for SDS. Knowing my luck when I do not rigorously adhere to my own system rules, this will probably backfire on me ...
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #107528
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
8/10/2012 2:30:24 PM
Out of SSO at 57.83, for a loss of about 0.15%.
UPDATE: Figures - it closes at 58.20.
I bought into SDS at 14.50 late day.
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tombrown1
61 posts
msg #107541
- Ignore tombrown1 |
8/11/2012 6:00:36 PM
Kevin, what criteria are you using for your trades? The trades you're describing don't seem to coincide with the system you outlined.
TB
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #107542
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
8/11/2012 6:39:29 PM
Right. These are real trades, and I was going to exit at the open this morning and go into SDS, but decided to wait. Worked out to be a better deal, I just should have held onto SSO a bit longer and would have made a small proft versus a loss.
There's the system, and then how you actually trade the system.
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bjfeen
24 posts
msg #107547
- Ignore bjfeen |
8/12/2012 3:08:27 PM
Kevin, because everybody seemed to be having an issue backtesting this system, I made a Google spreadsheet with charts going back to July 2006 that is accessible from the link at the bottom. Data is from Yahoo finance and no stop loss was used. Strategy was very successful during 2008 - mid 2009, but gave most of it back. Maybe adding the 3% stop loss will prevent that? BTW it has been doing very well again this past year.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuYZy0eiS8MSdEszRXpzSFlsZjVsYmxPbC04dmM0cGc
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novacane32000
331 posts
msg #107562
- Ignore novacane32000 |
8/12/2012 9:14:03 PM
My backtest going back to 2010 show that avoiding SDS trades when the market is trending up (such as it is now) improves results .SSO trades do best when the market is trending up but also hung in there during down periods.
Who woulda thunk it, trading with the trend works.
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blumberg
27 posts
msg #107568
- Ignore blumberg
modified |
8/13/2012 1:15:18 AM
So bjfeen's backtest has a starting equity of $100,000 ending in $387,945 about 6 years later and Kevin's backtest has $100,000 ending in $1,367,436 about 6 years later. Who is right?
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bjfeen
24 posts
msg #107569
- Ignore bjfeen
modified |
8/13/2012 8:07:03 AM
I wasn't using a stop loss. Including one should improve results. I'm working on that now...
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