| StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · BOLLINGER BAND TRADING STRATEGY | << 1 ... 34 35 36 37 38 ... 39 >>Post Follow-up |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #82436 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA modified |
11/4/2009 4:26:38 PM Kevin have you given up on this strategy. I think it has merit with a little tweeking +++++++++++++++++ Given up - no. Still trading it? Also no. The approach has merit, I know that. But given the high volatility going on right now, it is hard to hold on to stocks (like STEC) when they plummet, even though that is what the strategy says to do. This one works well in uptrending environments - it might benefit from a further selection of "stock is above its MA(50)" or something like that. Right now I am paying more attention to volatility-based trading strategies - in on VIX spikes, out a few days later with a few percent gain. So far this has worked every time I have tried it lately, and the vast majority of the time my money is not at risk. I'll return to this approach, but for now I am exploring a range of trading strategies to see which seems to work best for me. |
| duke56468 683 posts msg #82449 - Ignore duke56468 modified |
11/4/2009 9:25:20 PM Thanks I appreciate the response, I'm new to stockfetcher and am having a little trouble with the filter, my scan showed 0 stocks. Is this correct or am I doing something wrong? |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #82452 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/4/2009 9:50:31 PM Make sure you have created watchlists for the IBD stocks. As a quick check, remove that line from the filter and see if you get any hits ( I did this and got 42 hits). With the watchlists used, I only get three hits for today (GTS, TRLG, and STEC). |
| stratiG 147 posts msg #82496 - Ignore stratiG |
11/5/2009 2:29:36 PM Kevin, Have you thought about daytrading/scalp this strategy? I have been working on BB above 16, 2.5 RSI>90 for short possibilities. I'm still working on the entries, stops and exits, but this is what I have so far: ENTRIES GAPS If GAPS DOWN wait for price to move in the direction of the gap--enter trade if price falls below open If GAP UP -enter trade if price moves in direction of gap Today I'm Watching WBMD, HSIC, TRLG I have gone back to Oct 27/09 and it looks promissing. I'll follow up this post tonight my daughter is demanding my attention. Sorry. stratiG |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #82498 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/5/2009 2:47:18 PM 11/5/2009 2:29:36 PM Kevin, Have you thought about daytrading/scalp this strategy? I have been working on BB above 16, 2.5 RSI>90 for short possibilities. I'm still working on the entries, stops and exits, but this is what I have so far: ENTRIES GAPS If GAPS DOWN wait for price to move in the direction of the gap--enter trade if price falls below open If GAP UP -enter trade if price moves in direction of gap +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Yes. In fact I am going to start evaluating its potential for options plays as well. Still need to figure out the timing and which call or put to consider, though. In general this can be used to fade the gap on either a 1 day or several day timeframe. Obviously, look at TRO's MTC strategy as well - lots to learn there on when to enter a trade. He uses $0.10 above or below the open to set his trigger (and stop loss). Simple, effective, gotta like it. Today I'm Watching WBMD, HSIC, TRLG I have gone back to Oct 27/09 and it looks promising. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ look at www.freestockcharts.com for intraday data to see how it would have worked. Lots of stocks could be used here (especially from last week). I'll follow up this post tonight my daughter is demanding my attention. Sorry. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Take care of her first - backtesting can wait. Kevin |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #82528 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/5/2009 8:00:48 PM Trading this system - backtesting results for the last four months I have been a little remiss in my daily posting of congfirmed buys and sells, and I have not been actively tracking all of the stocks that have been signaled (only those I had money in). To be more accurate as to how well this has played out over the last four months, here is the backtesting results: Approach Name: BOLLINGER BAND CONFIRMATION BUY Test started on 07/02/2009 ended on 11/05/2009, covering 88 days Filter used: close is above close 1 day ago close 1 day ago was below lower bollinger bands(16,2.5) 1 day ago close is above 1 and apply to watchlist(IBD1,IBD2,IBD3) average volume(50) is above 50000 Trade Statistics There were 122 total stocks entered. Of those, 41 or 33.61% were complete and 81 or 66.39% were open. Of the 41 completed trades, 41 trades or 100.00% resulted in a net gain. Your average net change for completed trades was: 17.32%. The average draw down of your approach was: -3.02%. The average max profit of your approach was: 19.58% The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 0.00 (technically infinite, since the denominator is zero) Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 246.67%, the ROI of ^SPX was: 44.30%. Exit Statistics Stop Loss was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time. Stop Profit was triggered 27 times or 65.85% of the time. Trailing Stop Loss was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time. You held for the maximum period of time (0 days) 0 times or 0.00% of the time. An exit trigger was executed 14 times or 34.15% of the time. Equity Summary: Total (Cash + Market): $104,961.93 A VERY modest profit seen here, which would be considerably less after trading costs. This is why the equity summary is really the best test of a filter's performance, rather than the annualized %ROI. The trading frequency is a little too high here for the profit - this averages at ~1-2 trades per day. on 163 trades (122 buys, 41 sells) @ say 7.50 per trade if you're lucky, trading costs were $1,220, or just under 25% of your profit. |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #82529 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
11/5/2009 8:03:16 PM |
| spokunfor2 3 posts msg #82534 - Ignore spokunfor2 |
11/5/2009 11:24:03 PM Kevin...enjoy reading your work...your post of confirmed buys dated 11-5-09, I assume were for the trading day of 11-6 ?? since your post time was after 8pm..rite? I'm not sure also coz all 3 posted nice gains today and my other stock crunchers, i.e. vector vest, TDA's think or swim, investors underground, etc..are all showing a stong 'sell' on those 3 for tomorrow...it will be interesting to see if you 'beat the street', so to speak...I'm rooting for ya !! Gary |
| Kevin_in_GA 4,599 posts msg #82541 - Ignore Kevin_in_GA modified |
11/6/2009 6:47:18 AM What stock didn't do well yesterday? Oh yeah, CVS ... but other than that, it was an all up day for the markets. The confirmation signal is that, after the stock closes below the lower BB, the next day it closes above its previous close. Yesterday gave that option for a lot of stocks that may not have really earned it, but we'll wait and see. STEC has been beaten down to death for a good company - I would buy in at these levels, anticipating it to slowly rise back to $20 or so - (at its current price, it only needs to rise $3 to give you a 20% gain, which triggers a SELL). TRLG, as a retailer, could do OK as we run into the Xmas shopping season (I hope). Thanks for the feedback. Kevin |
| kmcninvest 43 posts msg #82544 - Ignore kmcninvest |
11/6/2009 7:56:26 AM FYI: just a heads up on STEC http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Law-Offices-of-Howard-G-Smith-bw-810792102.html?x=0&.v=1 |
| StockFetcher Forums · Filter Exchange · BOLLINGER BAND TRADING STRATEGY | << 1 ... 34 35 36 37 38 ... 39 >>Post Follow-up |
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