Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #79514
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
9/17/2009 2:59:37 PM
Sorry to hear that. I will most likely buy in at the end of the day, given the likelihood of a strong bounce tomorrow.
This is a VERY highly rated stock, and is in most institutional portfolios. They may be dumping it, which would mean that there is no strong buyers to push it back up - that is why I am holding off. I want to see if there is a move up into the close.
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gabestogie
79 posts
msg #79515
- Ignore gabestogie |
9/17/2009 3:05:57 PM
No problem Kevin,
There is a lot of dollars between where it is now and $39.00 to make that up.
Gabe
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gejordan
22 posts
msg #79516
- Ignore gejordan |
9/17/2009 3:14:20 PM
Options pointing to $30, or at least there is a lot of action in hoping it gets to $30.
I thought we were buying at the next day open per this strategy? Seems like all this talk of buying into the close, etc., is premature and will only get us into trouble. The midpoint of the BB is at $39 which, even if it falls to $37 and the price gaps to $33, we are going to have a nice gain if it just makes it back to the midpoint of the BB. (assuming it doen't make it back to breaking the upper band - due to continued weakness.)
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #79517
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
9/17/2009 3:26:26 PM
Bought STEC at $31.95, a little ahead of when I thought I might. Looked like there was the start of some short covering as it moved from $31.35 up fairly quickly.
Fingers crossed on this one, as with all my trades.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #79518
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
9/17/2009 3:30:34 PM
thought we were buying at the next day open per this strategy? Seems like all this talk of buying into the close, etc., is premature and will only get us into trouble. The midpoint of the BB is at $39 which, even if it falls to $37 and the price gaps to $33, we are going to have a nice gain if it just makes it back to the midpoint of the BB. (assuming it doen't make it back to breaking the upper band - due to continued weakness.)
++++++++++++++
Mea culpa.
You are right, but I also posted an analysis of the trades placed to date, and in 12 of 18 it was more profitable to but at the close of the day the price breaks below the lower BB. Also, tomorrow is options expiration, and my thinking was that with this sudden price drop, shorts will cover.
Also, it is very apparent that this will close below the lower band at the end of today, so my intent was to get the best price offered.
I admit that I will occasionally take a trade on or off before the signal tells me to. That's the problem with investing your own money - it makes you act out of emotion rather than logic.
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #79521
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA
modified |
9/17/2009 4:15:08 PM
Jumped the gun too soon - closed at $31.53, which means I "lost" about 1.3% by being impatient.
Someday I'll get more disciplined about things like that.
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gabestogie
79 posts
msg #79522
- Ignore gabestogie |
9/17/2009 5:42:49 PM
Kevin:
Based on the last 1/2 hour of the chart, what did you conclude about that type of action? I got stopped out of a few other stocks I was holding today. BGS seems to be holding so far.
Gabe
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Kevin_in_GA
4,599 posts
msg #79526
- Ignore Kevin_in_GA |
9/17/2009 6:33:28 PM
Beats me. I thought I was being clever (and it still is an excellent entry price, perhaps just not the best I could have gotten).
We'll see tomorrow.
And remember, I backtested this system without any stop losses. When I added them in, which seems to be good money management, the performance was worse.
My current approach is to make small bets (~$1000 per stock), with no stop loss in place. I am willing to lose this amount, but the odds of any of these stocks going to zero is impossible so I am not too worried about it.
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kmcninvest
43 posts
msg #79534
- Ignore kmcninvest |
9/17/2009 8:17:13 PM
I bought 3 lots of STEC 32.07/ 31.50 / 31.20. I think this is much like AMED where panic set in (over competition that does not have a product on the market yet). I feel very sure this will be back at 36 shortly. Heck, even Cramer on Mad Money was saying "Buy Buy Buy" to STEC.
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kmcninvest
43 posts
msg #79535
- Ignore kmcninvest |
9/17/2009 8:19:36 PM
For what it is worth:
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10600008/1/mad-money-lightning-round-get-into-baker-hughes.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
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